As an Apple fanboy, I’m worried.

The growth rate, the second derivative, of Apple Watch sales has been negative for a few years. In 2022 there was a real slow-down and but for the Ultra there would likely have been an actual yoy drop in Apple Watch sales. Then in 2023 there was a significant drop from we in Apple Watch sales.

Curiously, the slowing of Apple Watch sales isn’t something I’ve heard analysts talk about. That could be because I’m an idiot masking as a sentient being. Or…

Maybe the customer base happy for an Apple Watch with 18 hours has been saturated?

The S10 SiP on the new X is nice. But aside from a few of us geeks who mind might register that change, I’m doubtful that the vast majority of people are going to go ga-ga over that and cosmetic changes when the offering is essentially the same watch, an 18 hour watch that you still have to recharge every day.

Ok, yes, there’s an Apple Watch that gets 36 hours of use, the Ultra. When in 2022 Apple introduced the Ultra with the S8 SiP, it also released the Apple Watch Series 8 that also had the S8.

Last year, both the Apple Watch Series 9 and the Ulta 2 were upgraded to the S9 SiP.

So Apple at least for two years had a dual upgrade cycle for both Apple Watch and the Ultra.

That ended this year. Apple didn’t update the Ultra 2 in any meaningful way—not even a chip update—just a color change. There may be technical reasons; maybe the S10 would have negatively impacted battery life on the Ultra 2? Instead, the marketing yesterday focused on Ultra being an athlete’s watch. But I really doubt most Ultra buyers are athletes.

Instead, I’d bet good money that the vast majority of Ultra sales have been Apple Watch customers looking for more battery life. I’m one of them. And this year Apple gave those customers…a color change?

Anyyway, this got me to wonder if Apple is going to a tick-tock strategy on Apple Watches to smooth out demand? Or to minimize costs?

And why would Apple management feel the need to do that?